Archive for April 2013

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Japan hat noch deutliches Potenzial

11. April 2013

Liebe LeserInnen,

warum ich so positiv für den japanischen Aktienmarkt bin, möchte ich anhand der zwei nachfolgenden Beiträge aufzeigen. Ich hoffe, ich kann Sie auch faszinieren.

Viel Spaß bei der Lektüre!

Ihr Robert v. Kap-herr

Sloane Robinson schreiben in ihrem Monatsreport für März 2013 folgendes (hier Auszüge):

…Despite the strong performance of the Japanese market over the past four months, the evidence is that the market continues to under-estimate the Japanese authorities’ agenda of monetary policy easing in order to „take on deflation with policies of a different dimension from those…implemented in the past“ (to quote Prime Minister Abe-san during November’s election campaign). Since our last monthly report there have been two significant developments. Firstly, in March the nominee Haruhiko Kuroda has been appointed as Bank of Japan Governor by the Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament. Secondly, post month end, his first monetary policy committee meeting led to the BoJ announcement of a regime change to „enter a new phase of monetary easing in terms of both quantity and quality“ (to quote the BoJ itself), with the aim of generating 2% positive CPI inflation within the next two years.

Our observations on this change are as follows. Firstly, the BOJ has doubled the monthly purchasing of JGBs to Y7tr, which is likely to represent monetisation of 70% and 120% of the gross and net JGB government issuances. Such a change in policy tools is profound. Secondly, targeting an increased duration of JGB holdings, to 6-8 years, brings the BoJ duration in line with that of the Fed’s. Thirdly, the pace of quantitative easing is noteworthy, given how the BoJ’s monetary easing has lagged that of other central banks. The BoJ balance sheet is expected to expand by 1% of GDP per month versus the Fed’s current pace of 0.5% of GDP. As a result the BoJ balance sheet should rise from 34% of GDP currently, to 45% by December 2013 and over 60% by December 2014. The Fed’s balance sheet is anticipated to be 25% of GDP by December 2013. It is plausible that the re-rating effect in the US equity market, aided by monetary easing, replicates itself in Japan. The current market trailing price/cashflow valuations are: S&P500 9.3x, Stoxx Euro 600 8.6x, Topix 6.4x. Fourthly, while the purchasing of JREITs will triple from Y10bn to Y30bn annually, there remains ample scope for buying more of these real assets, as the targeted BoJ holdings for year end 2013 is worth only 2% of the current market cap of the overall JREIT sector.

The latest annual land price data, disclosed in March, illustrates the investment possibilities from a new domestic credit cycle – national commercial land prices are bottoming out, but are doing so after falling to the level last seen in 1971.

Artikel auf FTAdviser.com:

Fund managers call the end of Japan’s ‘lost decade’

Fund managers hail the Bank of Japan’s surprise monetary easing package.

By Matthew Jeynes | Published Apr 08, 2013

Managers have hailed the end of Japan’s ‘lost decade’ after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week unveiled a vast package of monetary easing measures.

The Bank’s governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who was put in place by Japan’s new prime minister Shinzo Abe last month, unveiled an unprecedented package that is expect to double the amount of money in circulation in Japan within two years.

This is aimed at finally lifting the economy out of its era of stubborn deflation, which has spanned almost two decades, and help it to achieve Mr Abe’s 2 per cent inflation target and generate growth in the economy.

“This is a significant moment for Japan and I think this is the end of the lost decade. It is a break with the past and the landscape is changing,” said Simon Callow, manager of the CF Miton Diversified Growth fund.

The multi-manager said he was set to boost his Japan weighting further on the back of the announcement, tipping Stephen Harker’s £1bn GLG Japan Core Alpha fund as the best bet.

The BoJ is set to buy up ¥50trn (£346bn) in Japanese government bonds per year, while also expanding its monetary base by ¥60-70trn per year and increasing its purchases of exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts.

Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select fund, agreed the ‘lost decade’ could be over, though he said the country “cannot get rid of its debt and its demographic issues overnight”.

“You do not get these moments in markets very often, and when you get them they are really worth paying attention to,” he said.

Gary Potter, co-manager of the F&C multi-manager funds, said he was usually bearish on Japan but this was the “best chance Japan has had for 20 years to boost the economy and markets”.

“People have been trashing Japan for so long but it looks like there is a real possibility of a transformational change in the market and in the perception of the market from global investors,” he said.

The BoJ’s announcement, which came 90 minutes before the Japanese stockmarket closed on April 4, pushed the Nikkei 225 index from a loss of 2 per cent on the day to a gain of 2 per cent. The index subsequently rose above 13,000 – a five-year high – as the yen fell by more than three per cent against the dollar.

The country’s 10-year government bond yield contracted from 0.55 per cent to 0.45 per cent, as the central bank’s commitment to buying up long duration bonds pushed down yields across the curve.

Scott Spencer, senior portfolio manager on the Aberdeen multi-manager team, said: “A lot of people have killed their careers calling a new dawn for Japan. It’s clearly a positive move but there is a long way to go.”

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Chartanalyse für Japans Nikkei 225

11. April 2013

Liebe Leserinnen,

seit meiner Empfehlung in Japan zu investieren (siehe mein Blog vom 05.02.2013 beim Topix-Stand von 940 Indexpunkten) ist der japanische Topix-Index um 22% gestiegen auf heute 1.147 Punkte . Zuletzt hat sich der Kursanstieg explosionsartig entwickelt. Ich sehe ein erhöhtes Risiko für kurzfristige Rücksetzer am japanischen Aktienmarkt. Wie der Topix hat auch der Nikkei 225 Kursindex zuletzt einen rasanten Anstieg verzeichnet. Einen möglichen Kursrückgang hat auch HSBC Trinkaus in einer Chartanalyse für den Nikkei 225 heute herausgestellt.

Einen solchen Rückgang sollten Sie als Investor unbedingt für eine Erhöhung Ihrer Positionen in Japan oder als Einstiegszeitpunkt nutzen. Japan bleibt eine längerfristig sehr attraktive Investmentchance! Lesen Sie hierzu auch meine Blogs vom 05.04.2013 und vom 05.02.2013.

Beste Grüße

Robert v. Kap-herr

HSBC Trinkaus Chartanalyse des Nikkei 225

HSBC Trinkaus Chartanalyse des Nikkei 225

Wikipedia Definition: Der Nikkei 225 (jap. 日経225; 日経平均株価, nikkei heikin kabuka, dt. „Nikkei-Aktienpreis-Durchschnitt“) ist einer von mehreren Aktienindizes der Zeitung Nihon Keizai Shimbun zur Messung der Entwicklung der Tokioter Börse. Er basiert auf 225 ausgesuchten Aktienwerten.

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Noch mehr Stimulus für Aktien in Japan

5. April 2013

From Bloomberg, 05.04.2013 00:30:25
The Bank of Japan’s new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, didn’t disappoint investors with his announcement yesterday: He laid out plans for the biggest, fastest unconventional monetary stimulus any large economy has ever seen. By definition, financial markets never expect “shock and awe,” but they expect it least of all from the hyper- cautious BOJ. For once, for the first time anybody can recall, “shock and awe” is what they got.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/XTINJN